Target
The diversification target is the defining metric of Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030. The vision specified that non-oil GDP (including petrochemicals, which were classified as non-oil) should increase from 41 percent of total GDP in 2005 to 64 percent by 2030. Correspondingly, oil’s share of GDP was to decline from 59 percent to 36 percent.
This target implied a fundamental structural transformation: shifting the economy from majority-oil to majority-non-oil within a generation. The vision identified twelve priority non-oil sectors — energy-intensive industries, aviation and aerospace, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, metals, tourism, healthcare, transportation and logistics, education, media, financial services, telecommunications, and petrochemicals — as the vehicles for this transformation.
The baseline year of 2005 was significant. Oil prices had risen from approximately $30 per barrel in 2003 to over $50 in 2005, inflating the oil share of GDP and making the diversification starting point appear worse than the structural economy warranted. This meant the 64 percent target was partly predicated on sustained non-oil sector growth rather than a dramatic decline in oil sector output.
Current Status
Measuring Abu Dhabi’s non-oil GDP share is complicated by the mechanical relationship between oil prices and the denominator. When oil prices rise, the oil share of GDP increases automatically even if non-oil sectors are growing. When oil prices fall, the non-oil share rises for purely arithmetic reasons.
Acknowledging this measurement challenge, the best available estimates place Abu Dhabi’s non-oil GDP share in the range of 50 to 55 percent as of 2024, depending on the oil price environment and the specific methodology used. In constant price terms, the non-oil share has increased more significantly than nominal figures suggest, reflecting genuine structural growth in non-hydrocarbon sectors.
The progress is real and measurable across multiple sectors.
Financial Services. The establishment of Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) in 2013 and its subsequent growth to over 1,800 registered entities has created a substantial new financial services cluster. First Abu Dhabi Bank’s assets exceed $300 billion. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange has attracted major IPOs including ADNOC Distribution, ADNOC Drilling, ADNOC Gas, Fertiglobe, and Borouge.
Construction and Real Estate. Massive infrastructure programmes — Saadiyat Island cultural district, Yas Island leisure complex, Reem Island residential development, Midfield Terminal at Abu Dhabi International Airport — have sustained a large construction sector. While construction activity is partly cyclical, the built environment represents permanent economic infrastructure.
Tourism and Culture. Louvre Abu Dhabi, the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi project, Formula One Grand Prix, and expanded hotel capacity have built a tourism sector that barely existed in 2005.
Technology. G42, the Abu Dhabi-based artificial intelligence company, and investments in semiconductors, cloud computing, and autonomous systems through Mubadala and ADQ represent emerging technology sector contributions.
Healthcare and Education. Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi, international university campuses, and expanded domestic healthcare infrastructure contribute to the non-oil knowledge economy.
Analysis
The gap between the current estimate of 50-55 percent non-oil GDP and the 64 percent target represents a significant structural distance to cover in the remaining years before 2030. Closing this gap would require either accelerated non-oil sector growth, a sustained decline in oil revenues, or both.
The challenge is that Abu Dhabi’s oil sector has itself expanded significantly. ADNOC’s production capacity now exceeds 4 million barrels per day, up from 2.5 million in 2008. ADNOC’s downstream expansion — including the Ruwais refinery complex, Borouge petrochemicals, and ADNOC Distribution’s retail network — means the oil and gas value chain generates more GDP than it did at baseline. The denominator has grown alongside the numerator.
In structural terms, Abu Dhabi has built a substantially more diversified economy than it had in 2005. The twelve target sectors identified in the vision document all show meaningful development. The question is whether the 64 percent target was calibrated to a scenario in which oil sector growth was more moderate than it has actually been. If ADNOC had maintained 2008 production levels, the non-oil share would be significantly closer to the target.
This raises a genuine analytical question: should Abu Dhabi be penalised for growing its oil sector successfully while simultaneously growing its non-oil sectors? The vision’s target was expressed as a share, not as an absolute value. A share target creates a situation where success in one sector (oil) mechanically impedes achievement in another metric (non-oil share).
Regardless of this measurement debate, the 64 percent target by 2030 appears ambitious given the current trajectory. Reaching it would likely require oil prices to fall — an outcome the government does not desire — or non-oil GDP to grow at sustained rates materially above recent trends.
Data Sources
Statistics Centre - Abu Dhabi (SCAD) GDP by economic activity publications. ADNOC integrated annual reports. IMF UAE Article IV Consultations. Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development publications.
Assessment: At Risk
Abu Dhabi has made substantial progress on economic diversification. Non-oil GDP has grown both in absolute terms and as a share of total output, supported by genuine structural development across financial services, real estate, tourism, technology, and healthcare. However, the 64 percent non-oil GDP target by 2030 appears ambitious given that the oil sector has also expanded significantly. Current estimates of 50-55 percent non-oil share represent meaningful progress from the 41 percent baseline but leave a considerable gap to close in the remaining years. The At Risk designation reflects strong directional progress that may nonetheless fall short of the specific quantified target.